Pete Bouchard

All Earl, all the time

The board is set, the pieces are moving. - Gandalf As we wait for Earl to come to Southern New England this evening, I think that quote is apropos. 1) The worst part of the storm will be between 9pm-2am on Friday night. Six hours of frenzied wind and rain - mostly along the Cape and Islands. Winds will increase FROM the northeast in that timeframe, and essentially stay from that direction until the storm pulls away. 2) Power outages are likely on the Cape/Islands. 3) Loosely secured boats may be tossed from their moorings on Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket. 4) Possible downed trees/limbs from Cape Cod to the Islands. 5) Between 1 - 5 inches of rain may fall - most of it (3-5") in southeast Massachusetts. 6) If you live far away from the coast (essentially anywhere north and west of Boston) get ready for a plain-ol' run-of-the-mill weak/mild nor'easter...that's it. The effects of this storm will be mostly felt along the coast and down through the Cape/Islands. So don't fire me an email on Saturday night and tell me I blew it and ask why you didn't get any heavy rain and downed trees and power lines. I'll just cut and paste this blog in the return email. What to expect While earlier in the week we were thinking of a possible landfall on Cape Cod - and as recently as last night a landfall on Nantucket - there is also the possibility that he may move FARTHER OFFSHORE. Indeed, late last night, Earl made a move that may position him farther offshore. We're watching to see if this trend continues through the morning, and if it does, the forecast will take on a milder tone. Ocean swells from Earl are here! Waves will be most intense through Saturday. Beach erosion is imminent and severe. Total realignment of the sand is possible (including the expansion and formation of sand bars) on some of your favorite beaches. Although it's a great weekend to gawk at the waves, BE CAREFUL if you venture into the water. Rip currents will be strong and numerous all through Labor Day weekend. Saving grace (if there is one) is that the storm will rocket out of here. Sun's out by Saturday morning, and the weekend looks great. Last time we had a near-landfalling hurricane was Edouard in 1996. Last time we had a directly landfalling hurricane was Bob in 1991. Last time we had a landfalling tropical storm was in 2006 with Beryl. "We are the Storm Station," as our annoucer Scott Chapin says. We'll be here every step of the way. On TV, Twitter, Facebook, Blogs... ...see you there. Pete...